Hell
A case on CSGORUN (halloween2026), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$100.00
Advertised RTP
90.59%
EV $90.59 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.18%
326 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 326 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/hell/show, 8 Nov, 19:51 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.59%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $100 | 90.59% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $100 | 92.24% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 39.6%classified 16.0%restricted 6.3%#ffd700 0.0%covert knife 4.8%extraordinary 3.9%sunny 2.5%epic 5.5%red 5.0%Ancient 4.3%mil spec 6.9%industrial 2.0%#4b69ff 1.8%Restricted 1.4%best hit $1,028 (10.28x)