Holidays
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$3.69
Advertised RTP
93.86%
EV $3.46 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.10%
162 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 162 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/holidays/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.86%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.69 | 93.86% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.79 | 91.38% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.79 | 94.16% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 4.2%extraordinary 0.0%covert knife 0.0%classified 2.9%#ffd700 0.0%sunny 0.0%legendary 0.0%restricted 29.1%covert 0.0%Ancient 0.2%red 0.0%epic 0.0%industrial 0.7%#8847ff 11.1%pink 10.9%mil spec 7.1%#4b69ff 7.8%Mythical 9.2%blue 6.7%Rare 10.1%best hit —