Horizon

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$3.99

Advertised RTP

92.07%

EV $3.67 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.46%

110 openings, sample method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

55.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

110 openings · below min

30 days

110 openings · below min

since tracking started

110 openings · below min

85.0%97.5%110.0%

Small sample. 110 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	110	97.46%±12.0	—	sample
30d	110	97.46%±12.0	—	sample
All	110	97.46%±12.0	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000,000	$546	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000,000	$400	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000,000	$300	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000,000	$178	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 250,000	$135	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 90,909	$99.28	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 28,571	$70.10	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,299	$45.93	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 4,739	$42.54	0.2%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,215	$33.88	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 747	$22.60	0.8%	0	0.1	—
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 329	$17.32	1.4%	0	0.3	—
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 146	$12.80	2.4%	0	0.8	—
Nova \| Toy Soldier (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 110	$9.75	2.4%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 71	$9.13	3.5%	1	1.5	0.65×
G3SG1 \| High Seas (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$8.71	4.1%	4	1.9	2.12×
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$7.21	5.3%	6	3.0	2.02×
AWP \| PAW (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$6.88	5.5%	6	3.3	1.84×
Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 28	$5.74	5.6%	9	3.9	2.29×
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$5.66	9.9%	6	7.1	0.85×
Nova \| Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$5.41	7.2%	8	5.4	1.49×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$5.41	7.1%	3	5.3	0.57×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$5.22	8.5%	3	6.6	0.46×
MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$4.63	10.3%	5	9.0	0.55×
Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$3.70	4.6%	4	5.1	0.79×
G3SG1 \| High Seas (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$3.34	4.2%	7	5.1	1.38×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 22	$3.13	3.9%	6	5.1	1.18×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 22	$1.93	2.4%	3	5.1	0.59×
P90 \| Traction (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$1.85	2.3%	5	5.1	0.99×
AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$1.50	1.9%	5	5.1	0.99×
R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$0.94	1.2%	9	5.1	1.78×
MP9 \| Capillary (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$0.93	1.2%	3	5.1	0.59×
MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 22	$0.93	1.2%	7	5.1	1.38×
Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 22	$0.69	0.9%	4	5.1	0.79×
P90 \| Traction (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$0.58	0.7%	4	5.1	0.79×
MP9 \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$0.51	0.6%	2	5.1	0.39×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/horizon/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.