Hot

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$0.63

Advertised RTP

93.81%

EV $0.59 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.23%

5,395 openings, odds method

Variance

13.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95.46%±24.10908 openings

7 days

93.01%±10.444,835 openings

30 days

92.23%±9.895,395 openings

since tracking started

92.23%±9.895,395 openings

70.5%95.2%120.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	908	95.46%±24.1	+0.1σ	odds
7d	4,835	93.01%±10.4	−0.1σ	odds
30d	5,395	92.23%±9.89	−0.3σ	odds
All	5,395	92.23%±9.89	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,395 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000,000	$1,805	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 1,000,000	$644	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000,000	$552	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 1,000,000	$510	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000,000	$354	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000,000	$328	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000,000	$166	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 1,000,000	$158	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 500,000	$123	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 250,000	$79.03	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 111,111	$53.42	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 90,909	$45.93	0.1%	1	0.1	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny	1 in 90,909	$43.38	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 40,000	$29.30	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 41,667	$28.44	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Col. Mangos Dabisi \| Guerrilla Warfareagent · violet	1 in 21,277	$23.92	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13,333	$20.70	0.3%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 11,364	$18.29	0.3%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 7,299	$15.78	0.4%	0	0.7	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 6,289	$12.89	0.3%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 4,587	$12.81	0.5%	1	1.2	0.85×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 4,717	$12.49	0.4%	3	1.1	2.62×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,016	$12.21	0.5%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,922	$10.95	0.5%	1	1.4	0.73×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,331	$8.08	0.6%	1	2.3	0.43×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 779	$6.13	1.3%	5	6.9	0.72×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 698	$5.60	1.4%	9	7.7	1.16×
MAC-10 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 744	$5.46	1.2%	8	7.3	1.10×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 312	$4.45	2.4%	13	17.3	0.75×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 319	$4.29	2.3%	7	16.9	0.41×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 214	$3.75	3.0%	31	25.2	1.23×
P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 72	$2.91	6.8%	85	74.4	1.14×
MP7 \| Impire (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$2.35	5.0%	80	67.5	1.19×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 65	$1.93	5.0%	72	82.6	0.87×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$0.97	6.5%	203	213.2	0.95×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$0.83	11.2%	434	431.6	1.01×
Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$0.82	8.9%	353	345.8	1.02×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Lionfish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 11	$0.68	10.8%	510	506.0	1.01×
Galil AR \| Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 11	$0.43	6.5%	494	480.6	1.03×
UMP-45 \| Continuum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 12	$0.42	5.9%	454	444.2	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$0.33	4.3%	392	416.0	0.94×
AUG \| Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 14	$0.30	3.7%	378	398.1	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 16	$0.20	2.1%	346	338.0	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 19	$0.17	1.5%	277	281.5	0.98×
MP5-SD \| Picnic (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 18	$0.17	1.6%	292	298.9	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common	1 in 17	$0.17	1.7%	337	323.0	1.04×
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 21	$0.13	1.0%	259	253.1	1.02×
PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 32	$0.06	0.3%	168	166.7	1.01×
Sticker \| ZywOo \| Austin 2025sticker · Rare	1 in 30	$0.05	0.3%	181	181.8	1.00×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/hot/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covertLegenda$0.63$45.9372.90x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrialJeff$0.63$0.330.52x6m

Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · commonJeff$0.63$0.170.27x6m

StatTrak™ Negev | Lionfish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedJeff$0.63$0.681.08x6m

AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecJeff$0.63$0.300.48x6m

Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecJeff$0.63$0.430.68x6m

P90 | Virus (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedJeff$0.63$2.914.62x6m

Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · commonJeff$0.63$0.170.27x6m

Sticker | ZywOo | Austin 2025sticker · RareJeff$0.63$0.050.08x6m

StatTrak™ Negev | Lionfish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedJeff$0.63$0.681.08x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.81%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.63	93.81%	49
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$0.63	95.01%	49

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%gold 0.0%covert knife 0.0%epic 0.0%rare 0.0%Immortal 0.0%sunny 0.0%pink 0.3%red 0.0%violet 8.0%classified 0.5%restricted 13.0%Mythical 1.6%uncommon 0.1%Legendary 0.6%mil spec 0.1%Restricted 9.4%milspec 16.3%#8847ff 8.2%industrial 7.7%blue 6.3%Uncommon 5.2%#5e98d9 10.2%common 6.0%#87c7ff 3.1%Rare 3.4%best hit $45.93 (72.90x)