Hunterxhunter

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$79.03
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $74.29 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
70.88%
27 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
27 openings · below min
30 days
27 openings · below min
since tracking started
27 openings · below min
16.5%71.0%125.5%

Small sample. 27 openings and 4.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d2770.88%±54.0—odds
30d2770.88%±54.0—odds
All2770.88%±54.0—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary1 in 500,000$15.6K0.0%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 166,667$7,6530.1%00.0—
AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 83,333$5,9100.1%00.0—
Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 83,333$5,2900.1%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary1 in 41,667$3,3990.1%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 35,714$3,1320.1%00.0—
AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 8,403$1,7320.3%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic1 in 6,579$1,6350.3%00.0—
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 4,902$1,5220.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 3,597$1,2840.5%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 3,195$1,2160.5%00.0—
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,916$1,0360.7%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal1 in 1,074$8711.1%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent (Well-Worn)gloves · sunny1 in 943$7981.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 673$6961.4%00.0—
★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 552$6281.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 373$6132.2%00.1—
★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 257$4922.6%00.1—
★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary1 in 193$4423.1%00.1—
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 105$3174.1%00.3—
AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 107$3113.9%00.3—
★ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 98$3044.2%00.3—
★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 78$2604.5%00.3—
★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Field-Tested)gloves · gold1 in 73$2514.6%10.4—
★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell (Field-Tested)gloves · rare1 in 45$1815.4%10.6—
★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 38$1645.8%10.7—
★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 18$1047.7%11.50.68×
★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal1 in 17$1028.0%11.60.64×
★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe (Field-Tested)gloves · rare1 in 14$88.458.6%32.01.53×
MP9 | Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 13$57.626.0%12.10.48×
AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 14$49.985.0%22.01.00×
FAMAS | Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon1 in 14$46.294.4%11.90.53×
M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 16$31.612.6%21.61.22×
AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 17$30.272.4%31.61.85×
Tec-9 | Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 19$18.681.3%01.40.00×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Parallax (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 20$18.401.3%31.42.17×
SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 21$16.241.0%11.30.77×
P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 23$14.480.8%21.21.70×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 22$13.730.8%01.20.00×
AWP | The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 25$10.200.6%21.11.82×
MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 27$9.480.5%11.0—
AWP | POP AWP (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 30$5.760.3%10.9—
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/hunterxhunter/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$79.0394.00%42
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$81.8190.80%42
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$81.8191.56%42
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 1.5%covert 8.8%extraordinary 4.2%epic 0.0%classified 9.5%Immortal 5.9%sunny 5.6%gold 1.4%rare 15.5%red 7.8%Legendary 11.1%uncommon 11.5%Restricted 5.1%pink 8.9%#8847ff 3.3%best hit —