Inferno

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$7.49

Advertised RTP

91.00%

EV $6.82 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.10%

51 openings, sample method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

40.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

59.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

51 openings · below min

30 days

51 openings · below min

since tracking started

51 openings · below min

-0.5%87.0%174.5%

Small sample. 51 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	19.36%±154.5	—	odds
7d	51	86.10%±14.1	—	sample
30d	51	86.10%±14.1	—	sample
All	51	86.10%±14.1	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 51 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Tornado (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,418	$105	1.1%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Brass (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 515	$64.93	1.8%	0	0.1	—
Nova \| Walnut (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 73	$31.13	6.2%	0	0.7	—
M4A4 \| Tornado (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 39	$20.23	7.6%	1	1.3	0.77×
Dual Berettas \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 17	$10.54	9.0%	4	3.0	1.35×
Dual Berettas \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$9.67	12.1%	4	4.3	0.92×
Tec-9 \| Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$9.03	12.1%	3	4.7	0.64×
M4A4 \| Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	12.7%	$7.71	14.3%	7	6.5	1.08×
MAG-7 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	13.2%	$7.34	14.2%	7	6.7	1.04×
Nova \| Walnut (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	10.2%	$4.58	6.9%	8	5.2	1.54×
Tec-9 \| Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$3.77	5.1%	6	4.7	1.28×
P250 \| Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 11	$3.76	5.0%	2	4.7	0.43×
P250 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 15	$2.17	2.2%	5	3.5	1.44×
Nova \| Walnut (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 18	$1.52	1.3%	1	2.9	0.35×
MAG-7 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 18	$1.45	1.2%	3	2.8	1.07×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/inferno/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.