Kanyewest

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$1.01
Advertised RTP
93.75%
EV $0.95 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.98%
1,262 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
2 openings · below min
7 days
95.41%±8.92930 openings
30 days
95.98%±7.631,262 openings
since tracking started
95.98%±7.631,262 openings
-0.5%122.3%245.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h248.02%±196.3—odds
7d93095.41%±8.92+0.8σodds
30d1,26295.98%±7.63+1.2σodds
All1,26295.98%±7.63+1.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,264 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 1,000,000$6530.1%00.0—
AWP | CMYK (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000,000$5440.1%00.0—
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,000,000$2920.0%00.0—
AUG | Copperhead (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 333,333$1230.0%00.0—
Sticker | Twistzz (Gold) | Katowice 2019sticker · Extraordinary1 in 200,000$1000.1%00.0—
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 32,258$61.970.2%00.0—
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 16,129$25.100.2%00.1—
XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Heavy1 in 13,699$24.920.2%00.1—
Glock-18 | Brass (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 9,804$23.070.2%00.1—
Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 2,433$11.530.5%10.5—
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 2,193$11.370.5%10.6—
P90 | Sunset Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 1,387$10.210.8%00.9—
Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 2,268$9.710.5%10.6—
UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 651$6.541.1%51.92.57×
Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 511$6.331.3%62.52.43×
PP-Bizon | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)weapon1 in 230$4.312.0%85.51.46×
Tec-9 | Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 122$3.773.3%910.30.87×
P250 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 128$3.402.8%69.90.61×
Galil AR | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 116$3.343.0%1610.91.46×
XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 122$2.792.4%1110.41.06×
AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 85$2.693.4%1614.91.07×
SSG 08 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 99$2.452.6%2112.81.64×
USP-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 85$2.332.9%1614.91.07×
MAG-7 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 73$2.133.1%1917.31.10×
PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 75$1.992.8%2316.81.37×
Desert Eagle | The Bronze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 75$1.832.6%1917.01.12×
AK-47 | Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 60$1.813.2%2021.00.95×
USP-S | Silent Shot (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 38$1.674.6%3633.11.09×
M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 33$1.444.6%3538.20.92×
Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 44$1.383.3%1728.80.59×
AUG | Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 32$1.284.2%3639.60.91×
SG 553 | Triarch (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 32$1.244.1%3840.00.95×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 28$1.044.0%4045.90.87×
MP9 | Capillary (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 22$0.934.5%5457.60.94×
SSG 08 | Memorial (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 22$0.864.1%6357.41.10×
MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 22$0.823.9%5956.71.04×
Glock-18 | Ironwork (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 22$0.823.9%6757.41.17×
MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 22$0.683.2%5156.70.90×
Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 22$0.633.0%6256.51.10×
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 22$0.582.7%4556.30.80×
G3SG1 | Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 23$0.452.1%5855.51.05×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · 11 in 23$0.401.8%4154.20.76×
SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 24$0.301.3%5953.01.11×
XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 24$0.301.3%4753.00.89×
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 24$0.261.1%4452.10.84×
Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 24$0.221.0%5753.71.06×
MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5E98D91 in 25$0.140.6%5751.01.12×
SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 25$0.110.5%5750.01.14×
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 26$0.070.3%4348.40.89×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/kanyewest/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.75%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$1.0193.75%49
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$1.0788.49%49
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$1.0790.34%49
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 4.3%gold 0.0%covert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%mil spec 24.9%Extraordinary 0.0%#8847ff 0.0%red 0.0%Heavy 0.0%restricted 4.2%pink 0.0%industrial 3.4%other 0.4%Rare 12.5%Mil Spec Grade 5.7%blue 18.3%Uncommon 2.7%violet 6.8%#4b69ff 8.7%#5E98D9 4.0%milspec 4.0%best hit —