Lake
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.20
Advertised RTP
93.78%
EV $0.19 from 34 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.43%
1,005 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,092 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/lake/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.78%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.20 | 93.78% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.20 | 94.00% | 34 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 4.2%industrial 40.2%#87c7ff 0.0%Industrial Grade 0.0%consumer 8.9%mil spec 4.3%#4b69ff 1.5%restricted 5.5%#8847ff 3.4%Rare 7.2%blue 8.1%Common 12.5%#777777 4.2%best hit —