Lore

A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$329.99

Advertised RTP

94.23%

EV $310.94 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

53.12%

5 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

5 openings · below min

30 days

5 openings · below min

since tracking started

5 openings · below min

-0.5%62.3%125.0%

Small sample. 5 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	5	53.12%±71.1	—	odds
30d	5	53.12%±71.1	—	odds
All	5	53.12%±71.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 400	$1,874	1.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 113	$1,175	3.3%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 96	$1,114	3.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 60	$952	5.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 47	$826	5.7%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 32	$721	7.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 28	$665	7.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 21	$589	8.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 13	$482	12.3%	0	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 12	$475	12.8%	1	0.4	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 21	$328	5.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 21	$269	4.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 21	$225	3.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 21	$211	3.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 21	$165	2.5%	1	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 21	$157	2.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 21	$132	2.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 21	$116	1.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 21	$113	1.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 21	$90.94	1.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 21	$82.71	1.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 21	$76.27	1.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 21	$62.50	1.0%	1	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 21	$53.71	0.8%	0	0.2	—

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/lore/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.