M 249
A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.45
Advertised RTP
91.36%
EV $0.41 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.15%
211 openings, sample method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 211 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 211 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/m249/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.36%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.45 | 91.36% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.45 | 94.00% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 2.1%2 3.9%Industrial Grade 0.9%consumer 3.9%Common 7.9%industrial 7.9%restricted 3.5%mil spec 5.8%Consumer Grade 17.0%Rare 15.7%Uncommon 1.3%violet 6.3%milspec 7.9%blue 3.9%#4b69ff 7.9%#5e98d9 3.9%best hit —