M 4a 1s
A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$1.99
Advertised RTP
92.56%
EV $1.84 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.69%
2,349 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
58.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,450 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/m4a1s/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.56%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1.99 | 92.56% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.99 | 94.00% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.2%covert 0.0%epic 0.0%restricted 15.9%mil spec 7.8%#d32ce6 0.3%Mythical 14.0%Classified 4.2%violet 4.2%pink 2.8%uncommon 7.2%#4b69ff 8.4%Uncommon 7.8%#8847ff 11.7%Mil Spec Grade 3.9%light blue 3.9%Rare 3.9%blue 3.9%best hit —