M 4a 4
A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.49
Advertised RTP
90.51%
EV $2.25 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.11%
264 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
51.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 305 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/m4a4/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.51%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.49 | 90.51% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.49 | 94.00% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#eb4b4b 0.0%mil spec 15.6%covert 0.0%classified 0.0%blue 11.9%Legendary 4.1%Rare 4.1%Mythical 7.9%#8847ff 11.8%restricted 20.5%#d32ee6 2.2%violet 14.0%milspec 4.0%industrial 4.0%best hit —