Machine
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.27
Advertised RTP
92.21%
EV $0.25 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.20%
9,200 openings, odds method
Variance
11.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,203 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/machine/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.21%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.27 | 92.21% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.27 | 94.77% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 4.4%covert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%gold 0.0%Mil Spec 0.0%classified 0.0%restricted 4.2%mil spec 9.5%violet 1.9%Consumer Grade 6.9%#d32ee6 0.0%Restricted 0.1%blue 1.7%consumer 12.2%#4b69ff 5.6%milspec 9.7%Mythical 1.4%Rare 4.5%#B0C3D9 2.6%industrial 13.1%blueLight 4.4%#b0c3d9 8.9%#87c7ff 4.4%common 4.5%best hit —