Man
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$5.08
Advertised RTP
93.93%
EV $4.77 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.69%
328 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 328 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/man/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $5.08 | 93.93% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $5.11 | 93.38% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.11 | 94.81% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.4%legendary 0.0%sunny 0.0%covert knife 0.0%classified 1.8%Covert 0.0%industrial 0.5%Immortal 0.0%rare 6.6%uncommon 3.6%Mythical 14.1%mil spec 9.0%consumer 9.5%violet 9.4%restricted 3.9%Classified 3.8%#d32ee6 6.6%#8847ff 4.8%blue 10.9%Restricted 3.6%pink 2.9%Rare 2.7%milspec 2.4%#4b69ff 1.4%Uncommon 1.4%Common 0.7%best hit —