Marblefade
A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$219.99
Advertised RTP
94.83%
EV $208.62 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.50%
46 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 46 openings and 13.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/marblefade/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.83%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $220 | 94.83% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $220 | 94.00% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 1.0%covert 49.1%Covert 0.5%gold 14.5%extraordinary 7.6%legendary 3.1%rare 14.5%#ffd700 4.8%covert knife 4.8%best hit $722 (3.28x)