Megarushh

A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$24.99
Advertised RTP
92.82%
EV $23.20 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.91%
222 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
64 openings · below min
7 days
99.56%±11.92206 openings
30 days
96.91%±11.49222 openings
since tracking started
96.91%±11.49222 openings
78.0%100.0%122.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h64100.19%±21.4—odds
7d20699.56%±11.9+1.1σodds
30d22296.91%±11.5+0.7σodds
All22296.91%±11.5+0.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 222 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,000,000$6,8560.0%00.0—
★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,000,000$1,1930.0%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 333,333$7210.0%00.0—
★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 142,857$5760.0%00.0—
M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 47,619$4310.0%00.0—
★ Falchion Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 16,949$3290.1%00.0—
SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 7,143$2410.1%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 3,236$1960.3%00.1—
★ Sport Gloves | Frosty (Field-Tested)gloves · epic1 in 1,805$1760.4%00.1—
P90 | Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 628$1200.8%10.4—
★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal1 in 372$1131.3%10.6—
★ Paracord Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 240$86.551.6%10.9—
★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 156$72.392.0%21.41.40×
★ Ursus Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 124$66.562.3%21.81.11×
★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 54$54.464.3%64.11.47×
★ Huntsman Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert1 in 69$53.803.4%13.20.31×
★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 61$52.303.7%23.60.55×
★ Paracord Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 58$51.433.8%63.81.58×
★ Gut Knife | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 58$49.343.6%43.81.05×
★ Kukri Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 54$48.753.9%54.11.21×
★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 49$47.554.2%24.50.44×
★ Shadow Daggers | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 49$46.644.1%54.61.09×
★ Paracord Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 46$44.494.2%34.80.62×
★ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 41$44.454.7%75.41.29×
★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal1 in 43$43.674.4%65.11.17×
★ Kukri Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 42$41.554.3%105.31.90×
★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert1 in 32$41.255.5%46.80.59×
★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 30$40.845.9%97.51.20×
P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 13$22.757.8%1817.61.02×
XM1014 | Ancient Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted1 in 22$20.234.0%810.20.79×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 22$17.783.5%810.20.79×
G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 22$14.722.9%1710.21.67×
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 22$11.422.3%510.20.49×
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce61 in 22$10.982.2%1110.21.08×
FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 22$7.531.5%1010.20.98×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 22$7.131.4%910.20.88×
Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 22$6.921.4%910.20.88×
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 22$5.001.0%1210.21.18×
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 22$4.881.0%1310.21.28×
AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 22$4.190.8%310.20.29×
AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 22$3.550.7%1010.20.98×
AUG | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 22$3.360.7%1210.21.18×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/megarushh/show, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.82%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$24.9992.82%42
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$24.9993.92%42
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.1%extraordinary 0.0%restricted 13.8%epic 0.1%classified 4.7%Immortal 2.6%covert knife 11.1%Covert 4.5%gold 4.0%mil spec 7.9%Restricted 4.6%industrial 4.6%Industrial Grade 4.6%#d32ce6 4.6%#87c7ff 4.6%pink 4.6%#d32ee6 4.6%Legendary 4.6%blue 4.6%best hit —