Mellstroy
A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$49.99
Advertised RTP
92.65%
EV $46.32 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.14%
501 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 501 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/mellstroy/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.65%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $49.99 | 92.65% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $49.99 | 94.38% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.0%covert 35.3%extraordinary 2.5%legendary 0.0%rare 1.1%epic 0.4%gold 1.4%sunny 1.6%Mythical 2.7%restricted 9.2%Ancient 4.6%Mil Spec 4.6%mil spec 9.2%Mil Spec Grade 13.8%milspec 4.6%Common 4.6%industrial 4.6%best hit —