Milspec

A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$0.99

Advertised RTP

93.65%

EV $0.93 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.06%

1,238 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

55.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

102.61%±18.08120 openings

7 days

93.06%±5.641,238 openings

30 days

93.06%±5.641,238 openings

since tracking started

93.06%±5.641,238 openings

84.0%102.8%121.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	120	102.61%±18.1	+1.0σ	odds
7d	1,238	93.06%±5.64	−0.2σ	odds
30d	1,238	93.06%±5.64	−0.2σ	odds
All	1,238	93.06%±5.64	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,073 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 500,000	$144	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 250,000	$108	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Brass (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 142,857	$64.93	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83,333	$47.08	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 47,619	$35.55	0.1%	0	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19,608	$26.67	0.1%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 8,264	$19.80	0.3%	0	0.3	—
Galil AR \| Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,436	$13.33	0.4%	0	0.6	—
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,546	$10.22	0.7%	2	1.3	1.49×
Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 747	$7.81	1.1%	4	2.8	1.44×
MP9 \| Sand Scale (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 352	$5.65	1.7%	7	5.9	1.19×
USP-S \| 27 (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 179	$4.76	2.9%	16	11.6	1.38×
Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 119	$3.90	3.5%	18	17.4	1.04×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 78	$3.07	4.2%	35	26.5	1.32×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 55	$2.55	5.0%	33	37.9	0.87×
G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 39	$2.05	5.7%	64	53.8	1.19×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 30	$1.74	6.3%	67	69.2	0.97×
Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 18	$1.39	8.5%	108	118.2	0.91×
P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 22	$1.37	6.7%	92	94.0	0.98×
XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 15	$1.16	8.6%	137	142.2	0.96×
P90 \| Off World (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$1.15	10.0%	161	166.3	0.97×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 12	$1.10	10.0%	190	174.7	1.09×
FAMAS \| 2A2F (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 29	$0.89	3.3%	85	71.9	1.18×
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 29	$0.77	2.9%	54	71.9	0.75×
Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 29	$0.64	2.4%	69	71.9	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 29	$0.63	2.4%	83	71.9	1.15×
MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 29	$0.48	1.8%	71	71.9	0.99×
Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 29	$0.47	1.8%	57	71.9	0.79×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 29	$0.41	1.5%	71	71.9	0.99×
Nova \| Windblown (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 29	$0.35	1.3%	68	71.9	0.95×
P2000 \| Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 29	$0.30	1.1%	73	71.9	1.02×
Galil AR \| Destroyer (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 29	$0.28	1.0%	79	71.9	1.10×
P250 \| Cassette (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 29	$0.25	0.9%	75	71.9	1.04×
Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 29	$0.23	0.9%	58	71.9	0.81×
PP-Bizon \| RMX (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 29	$0.22	0.8%	63	71.9	0.88×
MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 29	$0.17	0.6%	81	71.9	1.13×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 29	$0.16	0.6%	76	71.9	1.06×
P250 \| Cassette (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 29	$0.14	0.5%	76	72.0	1.06×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/milspec/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffH2OLAZ$0.99$0.770.78x23m

USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffBeαR$0.99$1.101.11x27m

Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffBeαR$0.99$1.391.40x27m

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New)weapon · RareБобр жора$0.99$2.552.58x39m

Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffJarkoo$0.99$1.391.40x1h

P90 | Off World (Factory New)weapon · mil specJarkoo$0.99$1.151.16x1h

MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffJarkoo$0.99$0.480.48x1h

G3SG1 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specMr.Morkovkin$0.99$2.052.07x2h

Nova | Windblown (Factory New)weapon · RarePolog$0.99$0.350.35x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.65%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
6 Nov, 05:23 UTC	$0.99	93.65%	38
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC	$0.99	94.00%	38

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedmil spec 15.3%#4b69ff 35.9%blue 14.6%milspec 11.7%Rare 22.5%best hit —