Mindgames
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$1.81
Advertised RTP
93.58%
EV $1.69 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.09%
784 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 784 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/mindgames/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.58%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.81 | 93.58% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.86 | 91.06% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.86 | 92.82% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 3.9%covert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%gold 0.0%Covert 0.0%covert knife 0.0%#d32ce6 0.0%classified 2.2%restricted 22.5%Mythical 5.8%Industrial Grade 0.9%pink 2.0%#4B69FF 1.2%Legendary 2.9%#d32ee6 2.0%mil spec 11.4%#8847ff 3.4%Rare 7.2%blue 12.9%#4b69ff 9.0%Restricted 4.5%violet 4.3%consumer 3.6%best hit —