Mirage
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$15.99
Advertised RTP
99.13%
EV $15.85 from 32 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.49%
35 openings, sample method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
56.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 35 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/mirage/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 99.13%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $15.99 | 99.13% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $15.99 | 94.00% | 32 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 0.9%mil spec 11.8%industrial 37.0%milspec 0.5%consumer 18.7%Consumer 3.1%other 3.3%#5E98D9 4.2%Industrial Grade 6.2%Uncommon 6.0%#8847ff 5.3%Common 2.8%best hit —