Mirage 2021
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$11.99
Advertised RTP
90.78%
EV $10.88 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.83%
58 openings, sample method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 58 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/mirage2021/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.78%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $11.99 | 90.78% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $11.99 | 94.00% | 31 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.0%pink 0.0%restricted 8.3%mil spec 17.2%violet 10.7%Restricted 11.5%Mythical 7.6%Rare 14.9%#4b69ff 9.9%blue 9.9%industrial 5.0%Uncommon 5.0%best hit —