Mongolz team
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$3.20
Advertised RTP
93.87%
EV $3.00 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.76%
153 openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
28.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 153 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/mongolz_team/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.20 | 93.87% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.20 | 96.75% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%extraordinary 0.0%legendary 0.0%sunny 0.0%Covert 0.0%Immortal 0.0%rare 0.0%classified 7.7%uncommon 7.1%#d32ee6 1.3%restricted 6.7%violet 14.6%pink 19.4%Legendary 8.8%#8847ff 13.9%Mythical 7.9%Rare 4.5%blue 4.0%mil spec 3.8%best hit —