Monopoly
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.45
Advertised RTP
92.85%
EV $0.42 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.36%
1,801 openings, odds method
Variance
7.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,801 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/monopoly/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.45 | 92.85% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.43 | 97.17% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.43 | 96.43% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.0%covert 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%red 0.0%Legendary 0.0%Ancient 0.0%classified 0.6%restricted 20.0%uncommon 0.0%#d32ee6 0.1%Mythical 0.0%pink 0.2%milspec 7.2%violet 6.0%#4b69ff 7.4%#d32ce6 1.8%#8847ff 6.2%blue 14.0%mil spec 8.5%other 3.5%Rare 6.7%Uncommon 12.4%#5e98d9 5.6%best hit —