Mp 5
A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.25
Advertised RTP
97.60%
EV $0.24 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.48%
1,854 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
53.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,914 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/mp5/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 97.60%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.25 | 97.60% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.25 | 94.00% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 13.1%classified 0.0%#8847ff 0.0%industrial 0.0%Mythical 0.0%Consumer Grade 5.5%consumer 0.1%mil spec 0.2%restricted 1.3%Rare 5.4%milspec 6.1%#4b69ff 13.2%violet 4.8%blue 23.6%#5e98d9 19.0%Common 3.8%Uncommon 3.8%best hit —