Mp 9
A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.99
Advertised RTP
93.52%
EV $0.93 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.68%
67 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
57.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 67 openings and 18.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 98 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/mp9/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.52%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.99 | 93.52% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.99 | 94.00% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 8.6%mil spec 11.5%red 0.0%rare 0.0%Consumer Grade 3.8%classified 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%pink 0.3%consumer 0.8%Common 1.6%common 1.2%violet 2.5%#8847ff 4.5%Uncommon 13.2%Mythical 6.9%gray 7.0%#4b69ff 3.8%Rare 22.8%blue 7.6%milspec 3.8%best hit —