Murzofixx

A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$2.89
Advertised RTP
94.87%
EV $2.74 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.39%
1,610 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
52.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
87.56%±15.70101 openings
7 days
94.55%±5.51819 openings
30 days
94.39%±3.941,610 openings
since tracking started
94.39%±3.941,610 openings
71.0%87.5%104.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h10187.56%±15.7−0.9σodds
7d81994.55%±5.51−0.1σodds
30d1,61094.39%±3.94−0.2σodds
All1,61094.39%±3.94−0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,610 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 500,000$1650.0%00.0—
AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 166,667$1010.0%00.0—
★ Ursus Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 111,111$89.000.0%00.0—
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)weapon · red1 in 47,619$65.270.0%00.0—
★ Shadow Daggers | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 19,608$50.510.1%00.1—
Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 7,246$30.570.2%00.2—
AWP | Electric Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 2,155$26.400.4%10.7—
FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 3,185$25.810.3%00.5—
Glock-18 | Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted1 in 1,401$23.170.6%11.10.87×
XM1014 | Bone Machine (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 382$16.301.6%74.21.66×
MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 171$11.112.4%69.40.64×
R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 219$10.941.8%117.31.50×
SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 128$8.582.4%1212.50.96×
CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 81$7.573.4%1320.00.65×
P250 | Iron Clad (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 61$6.844.1%2826.41.06×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 41$5.264.6%2838.90.72×
Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 22$4.657.5%7271.61.01×
MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 33$4.635.1%3748.90.76×
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 33$4.625.1%5948.91.21×
Dual Berettas | Tread (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 35$4.294.5%4246.30.91×
Tec-9 | Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 17$3.778.0%11794.21.24×
P250 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 15$3.408.1%111105.51.05×
Glock-18 | Ironwork (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 18$3.236.4%7987.70.90×
AUG | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 12$2.968.9%137133.11.03×
AK-47 | Steel Delta (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 34$2.712.9%5447.31.14×
MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 34$2.612.8%4147.30.87×
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 34$2.272.4%4547.30.95×
MAG-7 | Heat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 34$2.022.2%5447.31.14×
Desert Eagle | The Bronze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 34$1.832.0%4847.31.01×
Negev | Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 34$1.561.7%4047.30.84×
SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 34$1.481.6%4447.30.93×
SCAR-20 | Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 34$1.321.4%4547.30.95×
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 34$1.041.1%5447.31.14×
MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 34$0.981.1%4847.31.01×
AUG | Steel Sentinel (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 34$0.941.0%5247.31.10×
SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 34$0.901.0%5147.31.08×
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 34$0.580.6%4747.30.99×
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 34$0.560.6%4547.30.95×
XM1014 | Blue Steel (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 34$0.510.5%4847.31.01×
Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 34$0.490.5%4547.30.95×
PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 34$0.370.4%4847.31.01×
Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 34$0.350.4%4047.40.84×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/murzofixx/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.87%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$2.8994.87%42
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$2.8994.86%42
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%red 0.0%restricted 3.0%classified 0.1%Restricted 0.1%mil spec 21.4%#87c7ff 0.6%pink 6.4%#d32ee6 0.8%#8847ff 4.2%Mil Spec Grade 1.6%Legendary 2.4%Uncommon 7.4%Rare 11.3%industrial 14.1%violet 8.8%Mythical 2.9%milspec 8.8%#4b69ff 2.9%blue 2.9%best hit —