Musickits
A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$1.49
Advertised RTP
94.40%
EV $1.41 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.29%
9,836 openings, sample method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
55.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 94.19% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (99.89% – 102.68%, 9,836 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,836 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/musickits/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1.49 | 94.40% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.49 | 94.00% | 38 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed7 23.1%high 6.2%other 13.2%#4B69FF 6.9%High Grade 32.9%uncommon 0.3%#F2F8FF 0.5%blue 9.7%common 7.2%best hit —