Nakleiki
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.98
Advertised RTP
93.11%
EV $0.91 from 45 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.35%
97 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 97 openings and 18.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 97 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/nakleiki/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.11%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.98 | 93.11% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.99 | 92.17% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.99 | 93.08% | 45 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed9 1.1%remarkable 2.6%exotic 12.4%Mythical 9.2%#8847ff 2.3%violet 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%Rare 4.1%Extraordinary 6.8%Ancient 0.0%Legendary 28.7%other 10.9%Exotic 8.9%restricted 7.5%Sticker 5.6%best hit —