Nomad
A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$139.99
Advertised RTP
93.37%
EV $130.71 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.27%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
32.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/nomad/show, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.37%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $140 | 93.37% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $140 | 94.00% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.9%covert knife 47.4%Immortal 5.3%rare 11.0%epic 10.4%covert 18.1%gold 2.1%Covert 4.7%best hit —