Norse

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$104.99

Advertised RTP

92.93%

EV $97.57 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.04%

40 openings, sample method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

40 openings · below min

30 days

40 openings · below min

since tracking started

40 openings · below min

65.0%81.0%97.0%

Small sample. 40 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	40	81.04%±15.5	—	sample
30d	40	81.04%±15.5	—	sample
All	40	81.04%±15.5	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 250,000	$13.1K	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200,000	$10.5K	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 125,000	$8,522	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Negev \| Mjölnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 18,868	$3,156	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Negev \| Mjölnir (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$2,895	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 22,222	$2,761	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 153	$437	2.9%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 156	$409	2.7%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 132	$398	3.1%	0	0.3	—
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 138	$378	2.8%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 116	$366	3.2%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 103	$351	3.5%	0	0.4	—
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 93	$332	3.7%	0	0.4	—
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 90	$324	3.7%	0	0.4	—
AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 88	$314	3.6%	0	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Brass (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 44	$222	5.2%	3	0.9	—
SCAR-20 \| Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 14	$115	8.3%	5	2.8	1.79×
XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$111	8.6%	4	3.1	1.31×
MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 25	$106	4.3%	2	1.6	1.27×
XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$105	9.1%	2	3.4	0.59×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$103	4.1%	1	1.6	0.64×
MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$93.01	3.7%	1	1.6	0.64×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$92.18	3.7%	1	1.6	0.64×
SCAR-20 \| Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 25	$81.02	3.3%	2	1.6	1.27×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 25	$76.64	3.1%	2	1.6	1.27×
XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$75.28	3.0%	3	1.6	1.91×
MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$74.29	3.0%	2	1.6	1.27×
M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$69.71	2.8%	0	1.6	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Pyre (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$47.45	1.9%	1	1.6	0.64×
USP-S \| Pathfinder (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$35.51	1.4%	2	1.6	1.27×
M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$32.36	1.3%	3	1.6	1.91×
M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$18.87	0.8%	1	1.6	0.64×
Galil AR \| Tornado (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 25	$18.86	0.8%	1	1.6	0.64×
MP7 \| Scorched (Factory New)weapon · SMGs	1 in 25	$17.07	0.7%	1	1.6	0.64×
MAG-7 \| Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$14.04	0.6%	0	1.6	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Chainmail (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$13.73	0.6%	3	1.6	1.91×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/norse/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.