Nova
A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.43
Advertised RTP
91.01%
EV $0.39 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.14%
96 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
57.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 96 openings and 26.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 173 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/nova/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.43 | 91.01% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.43 | 94.00% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.0%Mil Spec Grade 0.0%Mythical 10.4%violet 0.0%Industrial Grade 0.1%consumer 5.0%restricted 0.5%mil spec 7.8%milspec 9.2%Consumer Grade 3.1%blue 14.4%Common 7.6%Rare 3.8%Mil Spec 3.8%#4b69ff 3.8%industrial 19.0%Uncommon 7.6%#5e98d9 3.8%best hit —