Overfit
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.62
Advertised RTP
93.99%
EV $2.46 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.64%
654 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 654 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/overfit/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.62 | 93.99% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.76 | 89.22% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.76 | 90.87% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%Covert 0.0%red 0.0%Ancient 0.1%classified 0.2%restricted 14.1%blue 5.6%#4b69ff 7.7%mil spec 26.4%industrial 16.6%Uncommon 10.1%Industrial Grade 9.3%consumer 5.3%Rare 4.4%best hit —