Pain team
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.45
Advertised RTP
91.92%
EV $0.41 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.34%
2,126 openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,126 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/pain_team/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.45 | 91.92% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.44 | 94.01% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.44 | 94.53% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%Covert 0.0%classified 0.0%rare 0.0%gold 0.0%covert knife 0.0%industrial 10.3%Mythical 1.4%#d32ee6 0.0%Legendary 0.1%mil spec 8.8%uncommon 1.2%milspec 11.0%#8847ff 2.8%Rare 6.2%violet 1.1%Restricted 2.3%restricted 6.2%common 4.3%blue 34.2%#4b69ff 10.0%best hit —