Penny
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$1.14
Advertised RTP
93.30%
EV $1.06 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.23%
11.4K openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/penny/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.30%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.14 | 93.30% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.12 | 94.97% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.12 | 93.65% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.0%covert 0.0%red 0.0%covert knife 0.0%classified 2.9%extraordinary 0.0%rare 0.0%pink 2.5%violet 8.5%#d32ee6 0.2%Legendary 0.4%Classified 1.5%#8847ff 1.3%Mythical 23.7%restricted 8.5%consumer 2.6%mil spec 13.1%milspec 8.3%Rare 10.8%blue 15.6%best hit —