Pepe
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.67
Advertised RTP
93.53%
EV $0.63 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.70%
6,831 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,831 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/pepe/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.53%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.67 | 93.53% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.66 | 94.95% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.66 | 94.77% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMythical 0.0%covert knife 0.0%gold 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.0%pink 0.2%industrial 0.1%Legendary 0.2%classified 0.2%restricted 31.1%consumer 0.1%rare 0.1%Classified 0.2%Restricted 4.0%Mil Spec Grade 1.1%#4b69ff 18.5%Rare 17.9%violet 7.0%blue 19.3%best hit $35.72 (53.31x)