Pins
A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.99
Advertised RTP
94.25%
EV $2.82 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.50%
513 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
42.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 622 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valeria Phoenix Pinpin · extraordinary | 1 in 14,085 | $46.91 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| Howl Pinpin · extraordinary | 1 in 9,259 | $39.65 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Guardian Elite Pinpin · extraordinary | 1 in 5,747 | $34.85 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Dust II Pinpin · extraordinary | 1 in 3,077 | $27.72 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Alyx Pinpin · extraordinary | 1 in 2,857 | $24.89 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Health Pinpin · remarkable | 1 in 1,506 | $21.74 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Civil Protection Pinpin · extraordinary | 1 in 960 | $16.70 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Brigadier General Pinpin · extraordinary | 1 in 588 | $13.32 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| Chroma Pinpin · extraordinary | 1 in 496 | $12.42 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.80× |
| Cache Pinpin · exotic | 1 in 374 | $11.09 | 1.1% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.20× |
| Mirage Pinpin · exotic | 1 in 254 | $7.58 | 1.1% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| Aces High Pinpin · exotic | 1 in 191 | $6.62 | 1.2% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.23× |
| Office Pinpin · remarkable | 1 in 185 | $6.50 | 1.2% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.48× |
| Bloodhound Pinpin · exotic | 1 in 142 | $5.69 | 1.4% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.14× |
| Nuke Pinpin · high | 1 in 122 | $4.96 | 1.4% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× |
| Lambda Pinpin · high | 1 in 99 | $4.40 | 1.6% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.96× |
| Black Mesa Pinpin · high | 1 in 92 | $4.28 | 1.7% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× |
| Victory Pinpin · remarkable | 1 in 84 | $4.05 | 1.7% | 6 | 7.4 | 0.81× |
| Headcrab Glyph Pinpin · violet | 1 in 76 | $3.83 | 1.8% | 6 | 8.1 | 0.74× |
| Combine Helmet Pinpin · #4B69FF | 1 in 62 | $3.61 | 2.1% | 13 | 10.1 | 1.29× |
| Wildfire Pinpin · Remarkable | 1 in 60 | $3.32 | 2.0% | 11 | 10.4 | 1.05× |
| Guardian Pinpin · high | 1 in 57 | $3.05 | 1.9% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× |
| City 17 Pinpin · high | 1 in 44 | $2.91 | 2.3% | 10 | 14.0 | 0.71× |
| Italy Pinpin · violet | 1 in 26 | $2.79 | 3.9% | 26 | 24.2 | 1.07× |
| Militia Pinpin · violet | 1 in 28 | $2.74 | 3.4% | 21 | 21.9 | 0.96× |
| Easy Peasy Pinpin · remarkable | 1 in 20 | $2.73 | 4.8% | 22 | 30.7 | 0.72× |
| Tactics Pinpin · blue | 1 in 23 | $2.71 | 4.2% | 24 | 26.9 | 0.89× |
| Welcome to the Clutch Pinpin · High Grade | 1 in 17 | $2.68 | 5.7% | 43 | 37.1 | 1.16× |
| Death Sentence Pinpin · high | 1 in 23 | $2.67 | 4.2% | 32 | 27.6 | 1.16× |
| Bravo Pinpin · blue | 1 in 22 | $2.65 | 4.3% | 33 | 28.3 | 1.16× |
| Inferno 2 Pinpin · remarkable | 1 in 22 | $2.62 | 4.2% | 25 | 28.3 | 0.88× |
| Guardian 2 Pinpin · high | 1 in 24 | $2.62 | 3.9% | 25 | 26.2 | 0.95× |
| Train Pinpin · high | 1 in 23 | $2.53 | 4.0% | 30 | 27.6 | 1.09× |
| Baggage Pinpin · blue | 1 in 12 | $2.42 | 7.0% | 55 | 50.6 | 1.09× |
| Canals Pinpin · blue | 1 in 18 | $2.39 | 4.7% | 33 | 34.2 | 0.97× |
| Guardian 3 Pinpin · blue | 25.7% | $2.13 | 19.5% | 160 | 160.1 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/pins/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.25%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.99 | 94.25% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.99 | 94.00% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.6%remarkable 11.3%exotic 1.9%high 20.0%violet 8.7%#4B69FF 1.6%Remarkable 1.7%blue 48.2%High Grade 6.0%best hit —