Platinum

A case on CSGORUN (vipcases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$396.73
Advertised RTP
89.71%
EV $355.89 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.54%
79 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
79 openings · below min
30 days
79 openings · below min
since tracking started
79 openings · below min
73.0%99.8%126.5%

Small sample. 79 openings and 10.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d7999.54%±26.1—odds
30d7999.54%±26.1—odds
All7999.54%±26.1—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 79 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband1 in 3,984$7,9440.6%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 398$3,1002.2%00.2—
AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 127$2,0244.5%00.6—
★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 91$1,8145.6%30.9—
AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 95$1,7425.1%20.8—
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Field-Tested)gloves · epic1 in 92$1,7405.3%00.9—
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 72$1,5225.9%21.11.83×
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 61$1,4116.5%11.30.78×
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 49$1,1516.6%21.61.24×
★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 30$8778.2%12.60.38×
★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 26$8168.7%43.01.33×
★ Talon Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife11.4%$3079.8%69.00.67×
USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified11.5%$2879.3%149.11.54×
★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal10.2%$2246.4%108.11.24×
★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare1 in 11$1774.6%37.30.41×
★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer (Field-Tested)gloves · epic1 in 12$1383.1%46.40.63×
★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Field-Tested)gloves · Extraordinary1 in 13$1092.3%66.01.00×
★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe (Field-Tested)gloves · rare1 in 14$88.451.7%65.51.10×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 16$78.101.4%55.10.98×
★ Moto Gloves | POW! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 16$66.081.2%64.91.23×
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 17$55.690.9%44.70.85×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/platinum/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.71%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$39789.71%21
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$39790.72%21
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%extraordinary 6.4%covert 11.4%epic 13.0%classified 12.9%covert knife 13.0%gold 3.3%Immortal 10.2%rare 16.1%Extraordinary 7.6%pink 5.9%best hit $1,814 (4.57x)