Potion
A case on CSGORUN (halloween2026), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
97.62%
EV $4.88 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.57%
2,862 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,863 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/potion/show, 8 Nov, 19:51 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 97.62%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $5.00 | 97.62% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.00 | 101.23% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 2.8%covert 0.1%Classified 0.0%restricted 12.8%covert knife 0.0%rare 0.0%industrial 12.5%extraordinary 0.1%mil spec 15.0%classified 1.5%Heavy 1.9%blue 0.9%Rare 21.7%uncommon 8.2%#d32ce6 3.7%Mythical 5.0%Consumer Grade 5.3%#4b69ff 8.2%best hit —