Premium fuel
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$9.98
Advertised RTP
93.95%
EV $9.38 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
123.84%
327 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 93.64% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (107.21% – 140.46%, 327 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 327 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/premium_fuel/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $9.98 | 93.95% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $10.23 | 91.65% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.23 | 93.56% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%classified 12.8%sunny 0.0%epic 0.1%restricted 0.0%covert knife 0.8%rare 4.1%#d32ee6 7.4%red 1.6%pink 17.2%Ancient 1.5%Legendary 2.3%#d32ce6 18.3%uncommon 11.8%Classified 14.7%blue 7.3%best hit $798 (79.97x)