Prisma

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$3.49

Advertised RTP

91.09%

EV $3.18 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

102.81%

474 openings, sample method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

474 openings · below min

30 days

474 openings · below min

since tracking started

474 openings · below min

-0.5%81.3%163.0%

Small sample. 474 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	18.91%±143.3	—	odds
7d	474	102.81%±17.5	—	sample
30d	474	102.81%±17.5	—	sample
All	474	102.81%±17.5	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 474 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 333,333	$532	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 142,857	$364	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 83,333	$232	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 45,455	$167	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 17,857	$111	0.2%	1	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 7,407	$79.12	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,262	$56.21	0.8%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,558	$53.91	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,634	$45.68	0.9%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 1,412	$43.10	1.0%	1	0.3	—
XM1014 \| Incinegator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 716	$33.98	1.5%	2	0.7	—
AUG \| Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 569	$29.06	1.6%	1	0.8	—
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 568	$28.59	1.6%	1	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 98	$14.29	4.6%	3	4.8	0.62×
AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$13.74	4.8%	3	5.2	0.58×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$7.50	7.5%	17	15.0	1.14×
R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 23	$6.39	8.7%	19	20.6	0.92×
XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$6.01	8.7%	31	21.9	1.42×
AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$5.88	8.7%	28	22.2	1.26×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$5.05	8.2%	18	24.5	0.74×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$4.26	10.6%	44	37.5	1.17×
MP5-SD \| Gauss (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$2.84	4.0%	23	21.3	1.08×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$2.50	3.5%	16	21.3	0.75×
MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$2.26	3.2%	22	21.3	1.03×
MP7 \| Mischief (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$2.02	2.8%	19	21.3	0.89×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 22	$1.74	2.5%	21	21.3	0.99×
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$1.44	2.0%	17	21.3	0.80×
Galil AR \| Akoben (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$1.33	1.9%	20	21.3	0.94×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$1.18	1.7%	22	21.3	1.03×
P250 \| Verdigris (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$1.06	1.5%	26	21.3	1.22×
MP5-SD \| Gauss (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$1.05	1.5%	18	21.3	0.85×
FAMAS \| Crypsis (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$0.90	1.3%	20	21.3	0.94×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$0.85	1.2%	10	21.3	0.47×
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$0.66	0.9%	26	21.3	1.22×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$0.58	0.8%	21	21.3	0.99×
Galil AR \| Akoben (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$0.46	0.6%	24	21.3	1.13×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/prisma/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.