Prompt
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.46
Advertised RTP
92.56%
EV $0.43 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.12%
5,888 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
28.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,888 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/prompt/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.56%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.46 | 92.56% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.47 | 90.59% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.47 | 92.57% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 0.0%uncommon 0.0%classified 0.0%restricted 25.0%Legendary 0.2%pink 0.4%violet 25.9%Rare 8.5%#87c7ff 10.1%blue 6.7%light blue 6.9%#4b69ff 5.8%milspec 3.9%#5e98d9 6.5%best hit $26.40 (56.17x)