Radiant

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$0.47

Advertised RTP

93.76%

EV $0.44 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

99.19%

1,619 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

107.92%±11.96215 openings

7 days

99.19%±4.361,619 openings

30 days

99.19%±4.361,619 openings

since tracking started

99.19%±4.361,619 openings

93.0%106.8%120.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 93.77% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.82% – 103.55%, 1,619 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	215	107.92%±12.0	+2.3σ	odds
7d	1,619	99.19%±4.36	+2.4σ	odds
30d	1,619	99.19%±4.36	+2.4σ	odds
All	1,619	99.19%±4.36	+2.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,843 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 1,000,000	$55.69	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 142,857	$22.37	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 27,778	$12.56	0.1%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 9,174	$8.95	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 4,854	$6.84	0.3%	2	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 2,137	$5.15	0.5%	0	0.9	—
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,066	$5.13	0.6%	1	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 305	$2.66	2.0%	9	6.0	1.49×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 312	$2.61	1.9%	3	5.9	0.51×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 156	$2.01	2.9%	16	11.8	1.35×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 56	$1.24	5.0%	37	32.7	1.13×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 61	$1.17	4.4%	43	30.3	1.42×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 41	$1.02	5.7%	46	45.4	1.01×
P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 27	$0.82	6.8%	68	67.4	1.01×
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$0.68	7.6%	105	91.1	1.15×
MP9 \| Shredded (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 16	$0.66	9.3%	133	114.7	1.16×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 19	$0.63	7.7%	93	99.0	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 12	$0.57	10.5%	136	149.1	0.91×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 25	$0.45	4.1%	62	74.2	0.84×
P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 25	$0.42	3.8%	62	74.2	0.84×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 25	$0.41	3.7%	74	74.2	1.00×
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 25	$0.37	3.4%	71	74.2	0.96×
MP9 \| Shredded (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 25	$0.35	3.2%	71	74.2	0.96×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 25	$0.32	2.9%	68	74.2	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 25	$0.30	2.7%	83	74.2	1.12×
Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 25	$0.17	1.6%	86	74.2	1.16×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common	1 in 25	$0.17	1.6%	61	74.2	0.82×
P250 \| Sedimentary (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 25	$0.15	1.4%	73	74.2	0.98×
FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$0.15	1.4%	75	74.2	1.01×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 25	$0.15	1.4%	77	74.2	1.04×
Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 25	$0.13	1.2%	63	74.2	0.85×
SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 25	$0.12	1.1%	82	74.2	1.11×
Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$0.06	0.5%	62	74.3	0.83×
MP7 \| Short Ochre (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 25	$0.05	0.5%	80	74.2	1.08×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/radiant/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | O-Ranger (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialsgvrrrrrrrr$0.47$0.060.13x1h

SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)weapon · UncommonBE HUMBLE$0.47$0.120.26x1h

P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareMartiniIce$0.47$0.420.89x3h

SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)weapon · RareMartiniIce$0.47$0.681.45x3h

FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)weapon · industrialMartiniIce$0.47$0.150.32x3h

Galil AR | O-Ranger (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialMartiniIce$0.47$0.060.13x3h

USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalMartiniIce$0.47$2.615.55x3h

P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)weapon · RareKorny$0.47$0.821.74x4h

AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspecKorny$0.47$0.631.34x4h

Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)weapon · UncommonKorny$0.47$0.130.28x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.76%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
6 Nov, 05:23 UTC	$0.47	93.76%	34
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC	$0.47	94.00%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedpink 0.0%Legendary 0.0%Mythical 3.8%violet 1.8%blue 13.7%Rare 35.0%milspec 5.4%Mil Spec 4.0%blueLight 8.1%common 4.0%#5e98d9 4.0%industrial 8.1%Uncommon 8.1%Common 4.0%best hit —