Recoil
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.49
Advertised RTP
93.87%
EV $2.34 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.39%
150 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 296 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/recoil/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.49 | 93.87% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.49 | 94.00% | 35 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%Extraordinary 0.0%Immortal 0.0%covert 0.1%Ancient 0.1%Legendary 5.8%classified 0.7%#d32ee6 1.8%pink 16.3%restricted 15.6%Mythical 18.2%violet 17.5%milspec 11.2%Rare 5.1%Mil Spec 3.7%#4b69ff 3.9%best hit —