Referral
A case on CSGORUN (freecases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.10
Advertised RTP
21.69%
EV $0.02 from 39 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
48.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/referral/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.10 | 21.69% | 39 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 0.1%2 0.1%classified 0.0%covert 0.0%light blue 0.2%#4b69ff 0.2%industrial 0.1%Rare 0.1%#5e98d9 10.1%Consumer Grade 0.1%blue 0.1%blueLight 0.1%Uncommon 0.2%milspec 0.1%#b0c3d9 37.5%#87c7ff 0.1%Common 0.1%gray 19.7%common 17.7%consumer 13.8%