Restricted

A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$2.99

Advertised RTP

94.40%

EV $2.82 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d

98.39%

1,652 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

57.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

98.25%±10.52394 openings

7 days

98.39%±5.141,652 openings

30 days

98.39%±5.141,652 openings

since tracking started

98.39%±5.141,652 openings

87.0%98.3%109.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	394	98.25%±10.5	+0.7σ	odds
7d	1,652	98.39%±5.14	+1.5σ	odds
30d	1,652	98.39%±5.14	+1.5σ	odds
All	1,652	98.39%±5.14	+1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,749 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 333,333	$431	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 200,000	$343	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| First Class (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 111,111	$222	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| First Class (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 66,667	$150	0.1%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 37,037	$97.82	0.1%	0	0.0	—
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 15,385	$74.36	0.2%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,803	$58.28	0.3%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,236	$40.73	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,314	$28.59	0.8%	3	1.3	2.25×
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 618	$23.00	1.3%	7	2.8	2.48×
P2000 \| Space Race (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 313	$17.64	2.0%	5	5.6	0.89×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$14.48	3.1%	9	10.5	0.86×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 111	$11.07	3.5%	15	15.8	0.95×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 75	$9.09	4.3%	29	23.2	1.25×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$7.50	4.9%	39	32.2	1.21×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 39	$6.06	5.5%	40	44.5	0.90×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 29	$5.15	6.2%	67	59.5	1.13×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 23	$4.69	7.1%	76	74.9	1.02×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$4.16	7.9%	109	93.6	1.16×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 13	$3.78	9.9%	124	129.8	0.96×
AWP \| Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$3.63	8.3%	107	113.2	0.95×
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$3.24	9.2%	162	139.5	1.16×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$2.70	3.4%	62	62.6	0.99×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 28	$2.45	3.1%	54	62.6	0.86×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 28	$1.96	2.5%	67	62.6	1.07×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 28	$1.76	2.2%	50	62.6	0.80×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 28	$1.63	2.1%	63	62.6	1.01×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 28	$1.35	1.7%	55	62.6	0.88×
Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$1.24	1.6%	53	62.6	0.85×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$1.10	1.4%	55	62.6	0.88×
XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 28	$0.99	1.3%	76	62.6	1.21×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 28	$0.90	1.1%	84	62.6	1.34×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 28	$0.78	1.0%	50	62.6	0.80×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 28	$0.68	0.9%	51	62.6	0.81×
P250 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$0.60	0.8%	71	62.6	1.13×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$0.51	0.6%	54	62.6	0.86×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 28	$0.48	0.6%	59	62.6	0.94×
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 28	$0.40	0.5%	53	62.6	0.85×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/restricted/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffSUBZERO02$2.99$0.900.30x1m

AWP | Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restrictedSUBZERO02$2.99$3.631.21x1m

SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New)weapon · restrictedSUBZERO02$2.99$3.241.08x2m

AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedSUBZERO02$2.99$4.161.39x2m

Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restrictedПицот$2.99$2.700.90x7m

AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalПицот$2.99$3.781.26x8m

USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · MythicalПицот$2.99$4.691.57x8m

AWP | Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restrictedFRIZYX$2.99$3.631.21x10m

USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · MythicalFRIZYX$2.99$4.691.57x15m

Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)weapon · restricted123$2.99$1.240.41x28m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.40%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
6 Nov, 05:23 UTC	$2.99	94.40%	38
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC	$2.99	94.00%	38

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 40.7%violet 14.1%Mythical 27.2%#8847ff 10.7%Restricted 7.2%best hit —