Saitama
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$1.30
Advertised RTP
93.89%
EV $1.22 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.65%
2,651 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
57.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,651 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/saitama/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.30 | 93.89% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.22 | 100.04% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.22 | 97.16% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed9 1.3%covert knife 0.0%restricted 6.7%covert 0.0%classified 0.5%extraordinary 0.0%sunny 0.0%Ancient 0.0%red 0.0%rare 0.1%Legendary 0.1%mil spec 4.9%pink 0.4%#8847ff 12.0%violet 15.8%#4b69ff 7.9%milspec 13.3%Mythical 17.8%Rare 10.5%blue 4.6%Uncommon 4.2%best hit —