Shadow
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$4.49
Advertised RTP
90.76%
EV $4.08 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.73%
74 openings, sample method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
56.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 74 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 74 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/shadow/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.76%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $4.49 | 90.76% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $4.49 | 94.00% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%Covert 0.1%classified 4.4%restricted 28.6%#d32ee6 7.2%violet 5.4%blue 5.6%Mythical 16.4%#4b69ff 4.0%mil spec 16.1%Rare 12.1%best hit —