Shatteredweb

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$4.99

Advertised RTP

92.74%

EV $4.63 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.49%

132 openings, sample method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

58.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

132 openings · below min

30 days

132 openings · below min

since tracking started

132 openings · below min

-0.5%166.3%333.0%

Small sample. 132 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	117.23%±215.2	—	odds
7d	132	92.49%±14.3	—	sample
30d	132	92.49%±14.3	—	sample
All	132	92.49%±14.3	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 132 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 333,333	$680	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 200,000	$488	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 100,000	$345	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 55,556	$224	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 22,727	$166	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 9,346	$123	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,922	$86.55	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,506	$57.59	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 810	$46.44	1.2%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 447	$37.34	1.8%	0	0.3	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 306	$34.26	2.4%	0	0.4	—
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 102	$19.16	4.1%	2	1.3	1.54×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 81	$16.25	4.3%	7	1.6	4.32×
MP7 \| Neon Ply (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$12.34	5.2%	0	2.6	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$11.13	5.8%	4	3.2	1.26×
R8 Revolver \| Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 38	$10.55	6.0%	1	3.5	0.29×
Dual Berettas \| Balance (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 23	$7.65	7.2%	6	5.8	1.04×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$7.07	6.9%	6	5.9	1.01×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$5.85	7.8%	7	8.2	0.86×
M249 \| Warbird (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$5.22	9.0%	9	10.5	0.86×
MP7 \| Neon Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$5.01	8.9%	8	10.8	0.74×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$4.44	3.8%	6	5.2	1.16×
Nova \| Plume (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$3.37	2.9%	4	5.2	0.77×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$3.36	2.8%	5	5.2	0.97×
MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$3.07	2.6%	5	5.2	0.97×
SCAR-20 \| Torn (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$2.56	2.2%	7	5.2	1.35×
R8 Revolver \| Memento (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$2.54	2.2%	7	5.2	1.35×
G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$2.05	1.7%	7	5.2	1.35×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.82	1.5%	3	5.2	0.58×
Nova \| Plume (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$1.73	1.5%	1	5.2	0.19×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.71	1.4%	6	5.2	1.16×
Dual Berettas \| Balance (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$1.59	1.3%	9	5.2	1.74×
M249 \| Warbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$1.53	1.3%	9	5.2	1.74×
SCAR-20 \| Torn (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$0.90	0.8%	6	5.2	1.16×
MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$0.90	0.8%	4	5.2	0.77×
R8 Revolver \| Memento (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$0.79	0.7%	3	5.2	0.58×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/shatteredweb/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.