Singularity
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$128.33
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $120.63 from 25 items
Observed RTP, 30d
108.35%
68 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
28.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
56.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 68 openings and 19.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/singularity/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $128 | 94.00% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $133 | 90.66% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $133 | 92.76% | 25 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 32.2%sunny 12.4%gold 4.4%extraordinary 9.5%classified 10.8%industrial 5.5%restricted 14.1%covert knife 4.2%Ancient 6.9%best hit $952 (7.15x)