Spirit ewc

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$0.19
Advertised RTP
92.13%
EV $0.18 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.59%
7,185 openings, odds method
Variance
6.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
86.54%±18.66660 openings
7 days
90.56%±7.024,670 openings
30 days
94.59%±5.657,185 openings
since tracking started
94.59%±5.657,185 openings
67.0%86.5%106.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h66086.54%±18.7−0.6σodds
7d4,67090.56%±7.02−0.4σodds
30d7,18594.59%±5.65+0.9σodds
All7,18594.59%±5.65+0.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,185 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 1,000,000$3300.2%00.0—
★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary1 in 1,000,000$2070.1%00.0—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,000,000$1200.1%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 1,000,000$60.200.0%00.0—
M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 500,000$28.300.0%00.0—
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 200,000$19.920.1%00.0—
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 166,667$15.810.1%00.0—
PP-Bizon | High Roller (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 100,000$11.270.1%00.1—
SSG 08 | Big Iron (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 83,333$10.720.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 45,455$8.280.1%00.2—
AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 25,641$5.880.1%00.3—
M4A1-S | Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 8,197$3.900.3%00.9—
MP7 | Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon1 in 6,711$3.530.3%21.11.87×
Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 1,949$2.360.7%63.71.63×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 2,506$2.320.5%102.93.49×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 1,403$1.830.7%85.11.56×
AWP | Acheron (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 276$1.252.6%3026.11.15×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 256$1.052.3%2528.10.89×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 237$1.022.5%3030.30.99×
AWP | Capillary (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare1 in 160$0.812.9%5144.91.13×
M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Minimal Wear)weapon · light blue1 in 119$0.633.0%5660.60.92×
Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 97$0.583.4%5874.10.78×
MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 51$0.455.1%129141.70.91×
Glock-18 | Warhawk (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 53$0.404.3%147136.21.08×
Glock-18 | Off World (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 51$0.394.4%144141.71.02×
P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 41$0.354.9%206175.51.17×
M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue1 in 32$0.315.5%233224.51.04×
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 37$0.314.8%236192.81.22×
MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 19$0.185.3%379369.01.03×
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 16$0.176.2%475459.21.03×
USP-S | PC-GRN (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 16$0.155.3%475447.11.06×
P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 16$0.155.3%419447.10.94×
P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 16$0.145.0%454451.41.01×
SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 17$0.113.7%440426.91.03×
AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 17$0.113.7%384426.90.90×
Sticker | donk | Shanghai 2024sticker · Rare1 in 17$0.093.0%462420.71.10×
Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d91 in 17$0.093.0%389420.70.92×
PP-Bizon | Brass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 17$0.093.1%435432.51.01×
MP9 | Bee-Tron (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 17$0.072.4%405426.90.95×
Sticker | Spirit | 2020 RMRsticker · 71 in 18$0.061.9%359397.90.90×
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common1 in 18$0.061.9%397406.40.98×
Sticker | Team Spirit | Shanghai 2024sticker1 in 20$0.030.9%341361.50.94×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/spirit_ewc/show, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.13%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$0.1992.13%42
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$0.1992.04%42
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed7 5.5%gold 0.0%legendary 0.0%covert 0.0%red 0.0%pink 0.0%classified 0.0%Legendary 0.0%uncommon 0.0%Mythical 2.4%restricted 1.5%violet 2.5%milspec 12.3%Rare 8.5%light blue 4.0%mil spec 1.9%#4b69ff 15.3%#5e98d9 11.4%Uncommon 12.2%#b0c3d9 5.9%Common 5.9%common 5.7%other 5.0%best hit —